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Our Modern-Day
Horsemen: The Top 4 Threats to Global Civilization
Now that I got your
attention, I'd like to say that I realize titling my new article entry as I have
may sound rather alarmist, and could challenge my reputation as an optimist, but
know that I write the following passage not from the perspective of one who has
given up all hope, but as one who holds the deepest-seated belief that the
highlighted points of concern can be addressed in time, even if just. I
especially believe that this is the case given the changing political reality
emanating from the far Western Hemisphere, one which could address such measures
all the quicker and with more comprehensive research and debate. Regardless,
these are things that I, when I have a spare moment, consider and ponder
solutions for however futile it may seem to others for me to do so. Perhaps
such is the curse of one who often is commended-and-yet-criticized by those
seemingly close to me for being too much of a macrocosmic thinker. Anyways,
these are my thoughts, in order from the worst threat to the least.
#1 The Pale
Green Horse: An Environmental Apocalypse
Global warming,
and/or any accompanying mass extinction, is no laughing matter, even if my title
for this section may be. Al Gore and countless environmental science majors
have it right when they say that the issue of climate change is getting almost
too hot to handle. Melting ice caps, the slowing and stilling
of ecologically-vital ocean currents, and gradual acidification of the Earth's
oceans threatens more than just a few fish, it threatens the very basis of the
food chain which in turn threatens the whole cycle on which perhaps 95% or more
of life on this planet ultimately depends.
Think about it...if
our oceans die, the countless insects that live in and species of fish
which migrate from rivers and streams to the oceans and back again die, the
birds and mammals that feed on those fish die, and so on. Similarly, if climate
zones further inland get drastically drier or wetter than normal, creatures and
plants that have evolved to depend on relatively stable conditions there become
hard-pressed to survive, and they start to die too.
You may say "well,
but we would survive, so we could always fix that later." Well, maybe, but
if we take too long to step up with our solutions now, even we may be hard
pressed to survive, and it wouldn't be a fun world to live in as we would have
to work damn hard to put food on our table and have some variety in our diets.
If the weather is always drastically shifting, from flooding to drought to some
other fluctuating extremes, or just tending towards drought and coastal flooding
as many climatologists project will happen, crop yield drops and you have long
bread lines and starvation. This would happen even in the world's breadbaskets,
the places which feed the rest of the world. Do the long division and you've
got a bleak picture. If unchecked, global warming isn't a possible doom for
most life up to and perhaps even including humankind, it is eventual.
Fortunately this is a bit down the road, though not so far that we can afford to
be the Grasshopper when instead we should be the Ant. But then there's...
#2 The Red Horse: Atomic Warfare
Maybe it's not the
1950's anymore, and recent arms reduction agreements and weak attempts
at diplomacy may have kept the clock from striking midnight, but it's still
five-to. Even if it were a quarter-to, that's far too close to Einstein's
second Stone Age as things now stand given the sheer number of nuclear weapons
in the world. Nuclear War is still the second largest danger facing our world.
Again, as I've said,
the nuclear-armed militiaries of the world don't have their nuclear forces
sitting hunched eagerly over their launch consoles as maybe they were during the
Cold War, but all it would take is some catalyst like a weather satellite being
put in orbit without proper notice being given to the most jittery government
plus a less-cool headed leader (unlike the real world example with Yeltsin in
the 90's), and we'd have some problems.
We also do have some tensions between some of the
smaller members of the club, like India and Pakistan, which could lead
to regional disasters that might possibly drag in other parties. While
reduced, the threat posed by loose nukes is still an ongoing hazard. The last
thing we need in a world burdened with the environmental problem and other
issues is a domino effect of this kind, or even perpetual and debilitating war
of any kind. However, I think this is a much easier fix overall than global
warming, but what about...
#3 The White
Horse: A Giant Falling Rock
Alright, I named
this one the White Rider/Horse because falling rocks shine all different colors
in our atmosphere depending on their composition and, regardless of composition,
a large enough rock is a big threat. No, I am not being Chicken Little or
whatever. Giant rocks can fall from the sky. If you don't believe me, go to
Arizona and take a look at that one famous crater. It was made by a falling
rock. Or read about what happened in Tunguska. Again, a falling rock, maybe
even two chips off the same old block. A falling rock killed the dinosaurs, and
our limited statistics say we are overdue for a major, civilization-threatening
impact. Our solar system is filled with them...most just pass harmlessly by, or
turn to ash in our atmosphere (most are very small). However, others pose an
eventual threat. As scary as this one is, we're already well on our way to
dealing with this threat, which I'll get to later. But, more needs to be done.
Well, finally there's...
#4 The Black
Horse: Bird Flu, Plague, and Widespread Famine
Ok, maybe you
recognize this one, and maybe it is classic form, but I think this one carries
through as relevent in its original symbolism. #4 is an ever-persistent threat
that rides in on the coattails of the bigger problems, though is no lesser for
it. Modern medicine still hasn't put a lid on all the major pandemics of
history, nor has the world community perfected a system for stopping a major new
pandemic from breaking out.
The most serious thing that we could face would be
something new that we have not yet seen, like Avian Flu. Such would be
dangerous due to the lack of definite countermeasures geared specifically for
it, though by no means would be completely nonsurpressable. Next to something
like that would be a combination of known disease hazards that would, given
environments where starvation and lack of government infrastructure abound, gain
a toe hold somewhere and spread. We see something like this happening in
Zimbabwe with cholera.
Again, this problem comes last, not because it
isn't important, but because as a threat to global civilization it is most
dangerous only when other things are happening to aggravate our ability to
respond effectively to such, or which would present a more fertile environment
for disease or famine (or maybe famine then disease, as famine
enables disease) to thrive (hence why it follows global warming, war, and other
disasters...such primary threats realized would reduce our ability to respond to
secondary threats). But enough of this...I'm starting to get depressed writing
about all of these things. Onto
solutions...
Cheer up, there
is a brighter side to this!
Well, now that I've succeeded in outlining what
appears to be some of the biggest problems facing us, here's what can be done:
#1 The most ready
way to deal with this "Pale Green Horse" is to do what has been discussed: cut
our dependence on fossil fuels, move on to alternative energy, and encourage
smart conservation and other projects for removing the excess CO2 in our
atmosphere (perhaps even some kind of atmospheric filtering). I think we have
to move faster on this, as this threat, however creeping it may be, will weigh
down our economy directly as some of the effects start to become severe
(hurricanes, flooding, and so forth will soon be more damaging to our GDP than
abandoning oil would be). With an economy overburdened by something
as momentum-driven as climactic shift on top of the perils of the boom-and-bust
cycle, we would eventually be looking at an endless downturn we couldn't get out
of, and the worldwide stresses presented by this would ensure that we are always
playing catch-up and that our hands would be tied further when attempting to
address some of the other problems on this list. By moving to a Green Economy
really fast (hmm...am I echoing someone :P ) we would be beating the curve.
Top economic incentives/technologies of the moment: an emissions-trading regime
enacted on a global scale to ensure that everyone is playing (Kyoto^2), hydrogen
fuel cells or extremely efficient hybrids in 5 years or less not 15 years down
the road, and the triumvirate of solar, wind, and nuclear power (nuclear to be
replaced swiftly by fusion...no, I am not delusional). The latter point...if
more money and careful planning is pumped into ITER so that it rivals the
Tennessee Valley Authority (and perhaps these other things with ITER) in
importance, it would change a lot...imagine, having a viable, safe test fusion
reactor in 3-5 years with working models following quickly on its heels.
The falling cost of energy (and it's drastic rise in both safety and
cleanliness) would help to stimulate our economy and would help offset in the
long run the perceived costs to industry that some green taxation might pose.
#2 Again, there are solutions in the works. For
example, the Obama administration is talking about a drastic disarmament push in
conjunction to some serious bridge-building in the State Department. Slashing
global nuclear stockpiles would push the Doomsday Clock back by hours, maybe
even almost one whole day if we went far enough. Otherwise, the
clearly-defined goal of reaching 'only' 1,000 weapons in the respective arsenals
of Russia and the U.S. would at least ensure global survivability
should something completely mind numbingly foolish happen, and it would make it
easier to convince other countries that we are willing to take the first step
before expecting them to step out of the Club altogether. I think a key element
to doing this may be giving up our much-vaunted-but-nearly-ineffective European
Missile Defense Shield. As it stands right now, that "Shield" only encourages
further developments in the armaments and capabilities of those nuclear powers
most suspicious of our intentions, and if it came down to it, it probably
wouldn't do a lot of good even for rogue countries, who would just as soon rely
on difficult-to-target delivery systems that do not rely on a ballistic missile
as they would a missle (or would work to develop their own decoys and
countermeasures to match). A softer deterrent, economic incentives you know,
diplomacy, would work wonders where something as static as the "Shield" would
only continue to poke the bear with a stick. By the way, I would like to say
that, despite the increased accuracy of those interception methods, putting
faith in that shield is like putting your extremely attractive girlfriend/wife
(or, depending, boyfriend/husband) in nothing but fishnet stockings, sending
them outside to mow the lawn, and not expecting your lusty neighbor to hit on
them. That, or putting them in only fishnets and saying they are ready for
dancing in the snow. Now, if you are that one guy who can withstand extreme
cold and climb Mt. Everest naked, then maybe it would be ok, but for most people
it's not going to work, but anyways my point again is that missile defense done
like this won't work. Ahh, a footnote: getting viable fusion, safe fusion
(some people worry a poorly made reactor could spawn some exotic matter or
something, but if done right it would be cleaner and far safer than fission and
would produce no biproducts that could be used for weapons), so ITER is a
twofer. Again, though, only if it is safe...it would be ridiculous if we, in an
attempt to save our planet from two big problems would unwittingly create an
instant third...from what I have read so far though, the risks of a working
fusion model are negligible.
#3 Alright, now here some of the technology
related to Missile Defense could make some kind of difference and could be
easily re-adapted to a truly productive purpose. Big rocks that could fall
out of the sky move at similar speeds to missiles, but are a lot bigger (at
least the ones that truly pose a threat), so are easier targets to hit provided
you can see them well enough in advance. We are fortunate that, despite a
slashed budget in the U.S. and limited budgets elsewhere for the sciences and
space programmes, we have been able to map and identify about 90% of the sky and
perhaps 90% of the likely threats of this form (at least the really, really
serious ones). A swath of sky in the Southern Hemisphere needs a little
mapping, but increase the budget for that by a little and improve the
sky-mapping technology (along with drawing up blueprints for a safe, economical
system for keeping giant rocks in different orbits) and its a solved problem.
#4 Continue providing food aid and medical aid to
the 3rd world. Provide incentives and launch diplomatic initiatives to
encourage more countries there to step away from war and human rights abuses and
towards stability and sustainable economic growth (which, nowadays, also means
green growth). Boost the WHO. Create a program for stockpiling emergency
supplies (like approximated flu vaccines, antiviral drugs, effective
supplements). For HIV, increase research efforts into a vaccine, do what hasn't
been done much recently and support safe sex measures like condoms, dental
dams, everywhere, sex ed (ear-burning words to some people) which might even
include information about elective surgery like male (never female) circumcision
and the associated reduced risks.